For years, the decline of the liberal international order has been an uncomfortable topic for many political commentators. From Brexit to the rise of populist leaders across the West, the cracks in the post-war consensus have become evident. The first Trump presidency accelerated this trend, with America withdrawing from international agreements, challenging NATO, and disrupting multilateral institutions. Now, with Trump back in the White House, one might assume that the liberal international order is on its last legs. But paradoxically, his return may be achieving the opposite.
Trump’s Ukraine policy, characterised by a blind support for Russia and his open disdain for Zelenskyy, has had a significant impact on the international order. His disengagement has forced European nations to recalibrate, stepping up militarily and diplomatically in ways they might never have otherwise considered. The EU’s landmark agreement to borrow up to €150 billion to fund military spending is a direct response to Washington’s retreat. Such cooperation would have been unthinkable just a few months ago. Trump’s unpredictability has fostered an unexpected institutional unity, something that has eluded European leaders for years.
His stance on Ukraine has also exposed and weakened many European populists. Figures like Marine Le Pen and Nigel Farage, once vocal Trump allies, now find themselves awkwardly navigating their support for a U.S. president at odds with their pro-Ukraine electorates. The balancing act is proving difficult. In the UK, Starmer has seen a surge in polling, capitalising on this populist disarray and the renewed appeal of mainstream stability.
The impact of Trump’s policies extends beyond Europe. In Canada, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre was once poised for an easy victory. But as Trump’s tariffs and rhetoric about Canada as a “51st state” take effect, Canadian voters have grown nervous. Poilievre’s previous embrace of Trumpian tactics is now a liability, and the Conservatives’ once-commanding lead has shrunk to a single point over the Liberals.
So, does this shift signal the return of the liberal international order? Short answer: no. While Trump’s actions have temporarily galvanised support for multilateralism and exposed the contradictions of the populist right, they have not resolved the deeper fractures within the global system.
Assuming this momentary unity will endure would be a mistake. History suggests that collective memory is short-lived. While it is helpful there is one issue that almost all of Europe can collectively agree upon (about time), this temporary cooperation will by no means solve the wider issues facing Europe. Ukraine might have provided a rallying point, but other divisive issues, such as fears over immigration, will continue to negatively influence cooperation and fuel populism.
More importantly, Trump’s presidency may be reinforcing elements of multilateralism, it is also simultaneously accelerating the decline of U.S. leadership. America has long been the backbone of the global institutions that form the liberal international order. If Trump decisively withdraws the US from these spaces, no amount of European cooperation will be able to fully compensate for the loss.
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