Who cut through in the run-up to COP26?

As COP26 kicked off, the data team at Trafalgar Strategy tracked and analysed the conversations that developed on Twitter. Over a one month period immediately preceding the start of COP26, they found over 2 million tweets that mentioned the conference.

Greta Thunberg was the most prominent voice on Twitter and had several tweets go viral in the build-up to the conference, using her platform to urge world leaders to face up to the climate emergency. However, hypocrisy was a prominent theme that emerged around COP26, with conspiracy theorist Joseph Paul Watson, political pundit James Melville and Andrew Neil, all highlighting the hypocrisy of world leaders with tweets that broke through the noise and performed exceptionally well.

Unfortunately for Boris Johnson, despite COP26 being his big moment on the international stage, Pope Francis and former US President Barack Obama received greater cut through. However, the most prominent tweet from any current or former world leader came from former Mexican President Felipe Calderón, whose tweet simply announcing the end of the opening ceremony outperformed every other world leader.

The Labour MP for Sefton Central, Bill Esterson, was the only current British politician to break into the top ten most engaged-with tweets. Unhelpfully for the Government, his tweet struck a chord with the Twittersphere, as he called out proposed cuts to air passenger duty and proposals for a new Cumbrian coal mine. Other than Esterton, only Nigel Farage, Caroline Lucas and David Lammy were able to make a serious dent in the overall Twitter conversation, with attacks that focused either on the Government, the hypocrisy of world leaders or mocking the Prime Minister.

Overall, our analysis of the Twitter conversations demonstrates the public is increasingly aware that changes to their lives are now a matter of when not if. Although the Government’s focus on climate change is important, the cut-through of social media centred around hypocrisy serves as a stark reminder that pursuing a green agenda promises to be a political minefield like few other policy issues encountered since the war.

#Data #Politics #SocialMedia

Under The Radar – 29 October

By Christian Wiediger for Unspash

This week, we discuss:

1. Amazon Win MI5 Contract

2. Eurostar London-Paris Route Faces Competition

3. Survey Finds Public Wants Net Zero Referendum

Amazon Win MI5 Contract

What Happened? The UK’s three intelligence agencies, GCHQ, MI5 and MI6, have reached an agreement with Amazon to host classified material on its cloud. The deal is estimated to be worth up to £1 billion over the next decade.

What does it mean?

In the new deal, Amazon Web Services, the company’s cloud computing arm, will be used by UK security services as well as other government departments for purposes such as speech recognition. The CIA signed a similar $600m contract with Amazon in 2013.  The partnership will allow the agencies to use applications, such as speech recognition, that would be able to pick up specific voices from intercept recordings, thereby massively speeding up the ability to search for suspects. Ciaran Martin, Head of the National Cyber Security Centre said agencies would be able to retrieve information “in minutes, rather than in weeks and months.”  The tie up has not been without its controversy, however. Gus Hosein, executive director of Privacy International, called it “yet another worrying public-private partnership, agreed in secret”. Conor McGinn, the shadow security minister, has written to his government counterpart, demanding a parliamentary statement from Priti Patel to explain the possible security implications. Increasingly we are seeing a trend of big tech companies providing services to crucial state apparatus and departments, especially security and law enforcement. A question to consider is what the threshold is for when private involvement in public services becomes a security threat and what are the consequences? 

Eurostar’s London-Paris Route Faces Competition

What happened? Spanish train operator company Renfe plans to compete with Eurostar to operate trains running in the Eurotunnel between London and Paris.

What does this mean?

Eurostar has not previously faced competition to operate the route, despite the fact that they do not have a monopoly. However, with Renfe’s bid, an improvement in the service itself and revision of prices, could be on the table.

Prior to the pandemic, up to nine million passengers were travelling between London and Paris with Eurostar, however, train traffic declined sharply when lockdowns were implemented.

According to a Spanish news agency, the British owner and manager of the stations and track, HIS, and the British-French operator of the channel tunnel, Getlink, have both welcomed the prospect of Renfe putting in a bid. The company plans to use seven of its own trains, and hopes to operations to be profitable within four years.

Renfe’s bid comes at a time when the UK is looking to project the image of an economy focused on sustainability and climate consciousness. While Renfe is a Spanish company, HSI, Getlink, and the UK Government could leverage this opportunity to promote their climate-focused agendas. Additionally, improving train services between the UK and the continent would be good for UK-EU relations in a post-Brexit world, especially with the recent Budget’s focus on infrastructure investment in the economy. 

Survey Finds Public Wants Net Zero Referendum

What happened?

A new YouGov poll suggests the British public is in favour of a referendum on the Government’s net zero plans. The survey showed that, of those who expressed a preference, more than 50% of every category polled supported a referendum. What does it mean?

With Cop26, and the possibility of a more comprehensive global action plan on the table, much of the focus on net zero has understandably been geared towards achieving buy-in from other world leaders. The gravity of the changes required at a domestic level, however, means a political consensus on net zero may not be all that it seems.

Few will dispute that achieving net zero by 2050 will involve the implementation of significant measures, drastically impacting the daily lives of every voter in some way. Invariably, many of the measures will be widely unpopular. And that’s before tackling the considerable likelihood of further tax rises to fund such an undertaking.

Tory MPs have already expressed scepticism about the Government’s recent strategies, with the Net Zero Scrutiny Group already boasting roughly 40 MPs. Even if a strong level of parliamentary support enables the Prime Minister to push ahead with his green plans, the universal consensus from mainstream parties on net zero is arguably masking what is a more complex and fragmented public perception.

With YouGov’s poll showing support for a referendum from every group surveyed, could a new political battle soon be upon us?

This week’s must reads

1. ‘Why there could be trouble ahead for Rishi Sunak’ by Stephen Bush for The New Statesman

2. ‘This will end with President Tucker Carlson’ by Helen Lewis for The Atlantic 

3. ‘Facebook cannot moderate itself – its problems have only just begun’ by Chris Stoker-Walker for The Guardian

4. ‘The Tories are in serious danger of misreading the national mood’ by Janet Daley for The Telegraph

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Under The Radar – 22 October

By Hert Niks for UnSplash

This week, we discuss:

1. Britain Strikes Free-Trade Deal With New Zealand

2. Qatar Sovereign Wealth Fund Looking To Buy Selfridges

3. BBC Newsbeat Staff Reject Relocation To Birmingham

Britain strikes free-trade deal with New Zealand

What Happened?

Ministers have sealed the UK’s second bespoke trade deal of the post-Brexit era by striking an agreement with New Zealand, which will see the UK phase out quotas on lamb, beef, and dairy.

What does it mean?

Whilst ministers have claimed that the deal will not pose a threat to domestic producers, British farmers have raised concerns that higher costs of production and enhanced animal welfare standards in the UK could lead to an influx of low-cost meat. The standards conundrum facing the UK as it strives to strike new trade deals with its newfound economic freedoms is one that has yet to fully play out due to the slow pace at which bilateral negotiations are being undertaken. Additionally, the extent to which any economic benefits are felt will be minimal; a previous government analysis suggested that at best it would increase GDP by only 0.01 per cent; whilst other estimates show it could even result in the economy contracting. For a country wanting to improve its level of global exports, the deal struck with New Zealand appears to fall short of the desired mark. Nonetheless, what the deal may lack in economic weight it arguably makes up for in political significance for the government, especially when the prospect of a UK-US trade deal remains a distant one under a Biden administration. Just don’t ask how importing cheap beef from the other side of the world fits into the government’s net-zero commitments.

Qatar sovereign wealth fund looking to buy Selfridges

What happened? The Qatar sovereign wealth fund has emerged as the frontrunner to purchase iconic department store Selfridges from the billionaire Weston family in a reported £4bn deal.

What does this mean? The Weston family launched a formal sales procedure for the department store chain back in July, but no purchase has yet been agreed. Other parties rumoured to be interested include Adia, the Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia, and Lane Crawford, the Hong Kong based department store business. Unlike many other department stores that have been suffering from a lack of investment and declining sales due to the rise of online shopping, Selfridges’ profits have doubled in the past decade and the Weston family have heavily invested in the business – the subsequent interest this sale has attracted isn’t surprising and simply underlines how high-end retail remains a lucrative bet. Selfridges boasts twenty-five stores worldwide, including its flagship London outlet on Oxford Street. It is understood that the Weston family are looking for a buyer not only for the UK stores, but for property in Dublin, the Netherlands, and Canada. Of the proposed £4billion price tag, it is thought that property assets make up £2billion of this. If the sale goes through, it would be the second major London department store to be acquired by the Qatari state, after they acquired Harrods from Mohammed Al Fayed for £1.5bn in 2010. Following the controversial Saudi-led takeover of Newcastle United this month, the sale of a more esteemed British institution to another oil state looking to diversify their assets in the age of net-zero only underlines the need for more stringent regulation of foreign takeovers.

BBC Newsbeat staff reject relocation to Birmingham

What happened?

Three quarters of the staff at BBC Radio 1’s Newsbeat have refused to relocate to Birmingham amid the corporation’s ongoing efforts to restructure and relocate its services. What does it mean?

Earlier this year the BBC announced a major restructuring plan as part of an ongoing effort to diversify its newsroom, as well as loosen London’s grip on its services.

The BBC’s restructuring efforts line up with the wider government agenda of levelling-up and creating a more even media landscape within the UK. And with many of the staff reluctant to move, the end result may be that more journalism and broadcasting jobs in the Midlands and the North will become available – although at the cost of losing the majority of current staff.

Staff are fearful to leave because relocation will require a pay cut and potentially fewer alternative media outlets to work for, which is an issue that Channel 4 also faced when trying to move staff to Leeds. Additionally, employees have voiced concerns that moving the newsroom outside of London would mean losing influence over the industry’s leading figures.

Ultimately, whilst diversifying the BBC’s output is vital, it won’t be achieved by moving existing staff to the Midlands. There’s no shortage of talent in places like Birmingham, Manchester, and Leeds, which already offer some of the best media degrees in the country – perhaps it’s time for the BBC to reconsider its recruitment strategy.

This week’s must reads

1. The harsh truths of partition in Ireland can’t be avoided in the name of reconciliation’ by Brian Hanley for The Guardian

2. ‘How Hong Kong’s elite turned on democracy’ by Timothy McLaughlin for The Atlantic

3. ‘No matter who’s the prime minister, the Treasury always win’s’ by John Elledge for The New Statesman

4. ‘Cop26 will fail unless rich nations keep their promises to the vulnerable – we cannot afford to be divided’ by Gordon Brown for The Independent

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