Under The Radar – 24 December

Photo by Solen Feyissa on Unsplash

This week, we discuss:

1. Biden’s dismal end to his first year as President

2. Mali’s fallout with France & their pivot to a Russian mercenary group

3. TikTok becomes the world’s most popular website

Dismal end to Biden’s first year in the White House

What happened?

US Democratic Senator Joe Manchin dealt a significant blow to President Joe Biden’s legislative agenda by announcing he would not support the $1.75tn Build Back Better Act.

What does it mean?

Biden’s administration was hoping to end a mixed year on a high by signing his signature bill: the Build Back Better Act. The legislation would make unprecedented investments into childcare, healthcare and climate initiatives at a time when the pandemic still wreaks havoc throughout society and climate action is the buzzword of the year.

However, when a member of your own party rebels against you and leaves next-to-no room for negotiation, the optics are less than optimal, and moreover, the chances of the bill passing are even less due to the 50-50 split in the Senate. Should the Senate Democratic Leadership push ahead with a vote, the risk of further discord between the left and centre of the party is greatly increased as well as the dilution of the bill itself.

This is not a position Biden wants to find himself in heading into the midterms next year. Not only will he have failed to deliver on key election promises, but amidst this factionalism he will likely lose control of Congress and take a significant dent to his reputation as a bipartisan deal maker. Regardless of whether it’s Trump or a different Republican nominee, his opponents will have relished this week’s events.

There is one option left in Biden’s arsenal; using the power of the executive pen, as Trump did a number of times, to enact immediate change. Whether or not Biden ditches his preference for bipartisanship in favour of executive power remains unknown, but it may be a last resort to rescue his Presidency.

Fallout with France turns Mali to Russian mercenary group

What happened?

The Malian government has turned to Kremlin-linked mercenaries due to France’s failure to eradicate the threat from jihadist groups, with violence spreading to Burkina Faso and Niger and millions being displaced across the Sahel.

What does it mean?

This is yet another example of the declining influence of Western powers in their former colonies and the opportunities it provides to illiberal regimes. Unable to quell jihadist violence, the French have been criticised for worsening a conflict that began in 2013 and inadvertently pushing Mali towards the Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary outfit headed by Yevgeny Prigozhin, an oligarch who also runs Russia’s Western disinformation factory, the Internet Research Agency.

This power shift is a result of France’s misguided focus on combating the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) rather than al-Qaeda linked groups (JNIM), even though JNIM account for about 90 percent of jihadist activity in the region. This has baffled the Malians, who have been further disillusioned by a French air strike that is alleged by the UN to have killed 19 civilians.

But one French source suggests their withdrawal is linked to the Malian government, who having taken power through a coup-d’etat, is breaking their commitment to hold elections in February. This would also explain Mali’s shift to Russia, who have close ties to other authoritarian regimes.

Macron’s desire to break with Françafrique not only opens the door to further Russian influence in Africa, but at a time of heightened tension over potential conflict in Ukraine, Putin will be emboldened by the continued withdrawal of Western powers on the global stage.

TikTok overtakes Google as world’s most popular website

What happened? TikTok, the short-form video app, has overtaken Google as the world’s most popular website.

Even though Google owns a variety of popular domains (including Maps, Mail and Translate), the Chinese owned social media site has surpassed its US rivals during the pandemic.

What does it mean?

Viral entertainment on TikTok’s platform has spread like wildfire in the era of isolation and online friends. And whilst Google continues to offer many of the products that support remote working, TikTok’s rise to the top suggests that content is king.

But more crucially, these latest figures underline why TikTok receives such special treatment back home. Unlike other consumer tech companies in China, such as Alibaba, TikTok has not had its wings clipped by the Chinese government, who are clamping down on the consumer tech industry in a concerted effort to push China’s best and brightest towards more strategically important tech industries, like battery and small chip production.

But with so many global users – now believed to be over one billion per month – TikTok is a vital soft power asset for China. With the ability to collect vast quantities of data from a wide variety of users, China’s intelligence services will be well equipped to step up its global disinformation efforts in order to manipulate foreign elections and sow discord, should they choose to do so.

Many in the West have voiced concerns regarding this issue, but so far, no country has followed in India’s footsteps by banning the app. Given that Facebook, Twitter and Google have long been excluded from the Chinese market, there may be some stronger lobbying efforts to convince the US and its allies to engage in some tit for tat.

This week’s must reads:

1. “North-South antipathies endure around the world” in The Economist

2. “Liz Truss: the new Iron Lady?” by Charlotte Edwardes for The Times

3. “Sturgeonomics would have crashed an independent Scotland” by John Ferry for The Spectator

4. “Americans lose faith in Facebook and other Big Tech” by Hugh Tomlinson for The Times

Chart of the week:

Hannah Ritchie (2021) – “Climate change and flying: what share of global CO2 emissions come from aviation?”. Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: ‘https://ourworldindata.org/global-rise-of-education’ [Online Resource]

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Under The Radar – 17 December

This week, we discuss:

1. Sinn Fein’s continued rise

2. Time magazine names Elon Musk person of the year

3. Peloton bounces back from Sex and the City PR disaster

Ourselves Alone: Sinn Fein’s continued rise in both the Republic and Northern Ireland

What Happened?

In the Republic of Ireland, Sinn Fein has seen its polling numbers continue to rise. The left-wing party recently polled at 35%, 15% ahead of its closest rivals.

What does it mean?

Sinn Fein’s leader, Mary Lou Macdonald, has firmly put the controversial party in Ireland’s political shop window as a vessel for change through popular policies on social housing, increased spending, and taxing the rich.

Yet the two parties in the coalition government, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, still command 40% support, meaning a future Sinn Fein government is far from inevitable. What this does show is that Sinn Fein is moving past its roots of militant radicalism and cannot be ignored as a legitimate political force.

The Northern Irish arm of Sinn Fein, which abstains from sitting in Westminster, has also enjoyed major growth in support. Should the two arms of Sinn Fein eventually command an electoral majority in both states, this will lead to a concerted campaign for a united Ireland, much like the Scottish Independence movement.

The UK government would have to be cautious in its response should the issue of unification relight. A return to violence would be catastrophic, ruining over twenty years of peace, whilst inflammatory international responses would deeply damage the Brexit project. After all, the effervescent Northern Ireland Protocol has seen continued tension between the EU and the UK, whilst U.S. President Biden has also stepped in to warn the Prime Minister against playing with fire when it comes to Northern Ireland.

There is still a 54-46 majority in favour of remaining in the UK in Northern Ireland, but Brexit complications and flirtatious advances from its Southern neighbour could tip the scales further.  

Time magazine criticized for naming Elon Musk person of the year

What happened? Time magazine’s decision to name the world’s richest person, Elon Musk, as their person of the year has drawn sharp criticism. What does this mean?

Time magazine’s annual person of the year has typically been used to distinguish those who have achieved remarkable feats. The award has previously been bestowed upon those who have made valuable contributions to society, such as Ebola healthcare workers, the MeToo movement, and Greta Thunberg.

The decision to honor Elon Musk with this award has certainly raised eyebrows. Musk is a controversial figure in the US for many reasons, especially due to his attitudes towards tax. According to a Propublic investigation, Musk only pays a “real” rate of tax at 3.2%, despite his $267 billion net worth.

This sparked a strong reaction from Senator Elizabeth Warren, a passionate advocate of raising taxes and cracking down on big tech, who accused Musk of “freeloading off everyone else”. Given that Tesla depended on government subsidies (i.e. taxpayer money) for many years whilst it struggled to disrupt the automotive industry, she does have a point. Critics also pointed to other controversies. Robert Reich, who served as Labor Secretary in the Clinton administration, highlighted Musk’s opposition to unions, including how he allegedly threatened to take away stock options if employees unionised. With the Biden administration repeatedly offering its support to unions, especially those organising for better working conditions at big tech companies like Amazon, Uber and Tesla, this is another example of Time’s failure to capture the public mood. In a year where scientists have created life-saving vaccines whilst wealth inequality hit new highs, the decision to select the world’s richest man – and Covid sceptic – as person of year is worthy of criticism.

But don’t dwell on it. After all, who buys magazines anymore? 

Peloton bounces back from Sex and the City reboot PR disaster

What happened?

Peloton’s shares plummeted following the death of a lead character using their exercise bike in the reboot of Sex and the City.

But after shares fell by 16.1%, Peloton were able to bounce back just as quickly, following a bold advertising campaign showing Mr Big alive and well. What does it mean? The story is interesting for multiple reasons – it is a cautionary tale concerning the power of social media and television when a PR stunt goes awry, whilst also shining light on the emergence of the subscription economy in marketing & PR, which will aid companies seeking to react to crisis situations rapidly. Peloton’s initial reaction after the episode aired was one of panic – accusing HBO of misleading them. But the blame game did not prove to be effective and led to a seemingly even more desperate but ultimately impactful solution. Instead, Peloton produced a new social media advertisement, showing the character to be alive and well, ready for another ride with his instructor in a cheeky Christmas video.

As Sky News reported, the quick response by Peloton was made possible by the fact that they participated in a new Creative-As-A-Subscription service by software company MNTN. The ad itself was produced by marketing agency Maximum Effort, founded by Hollywood actor Ryan Reynolds, who also provided the voiceover in a video that took a single weekend to produce.

Whilst this is an amusing story, it points to a promising and potentially lucrative future for creatives in marketing & PR, especially those working with clients who are prone to crisis. 

This week’s must reads

1. “Labour now look like the adults in the room” by David Aaronovitch for The Times

2. “Biden’s democracy summit must deliver on its aims to beat authoritarianism” by Elise Labott for The Guardian

3. “Even under Dominic Raab’s ‘British Bill of Rights’, Strasbourg reigns supreme” by Yuan Yi Zhu for The Telegraph

4. “The limits of US sanctions in dealing with Russia are becoming clear” by Megan Greene for The Financial Times

Chart of the Week

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Under The Radar – 10 December

This week, we discuss:

1. The UK is “on a mission for fission”

2. Financial sector shifts away from EU and towards the US

3. Countries line up to boycott the winter Olympics

The UK is “on a mission for fission”

What Happened?

Greg Hands, the UK Minister for Energy, Clean Growth and Climate Change, told the Nuclear Industry Association that “net-zero needs nuclear” during a speech at the annual NIA conference.

What does it mean?

Given the recent energy crisis, highlighted most recently by the impact of Storm Arwen, energy security is an increasingly concerning issue. This is not helped by numerous energy companies going bust over the past couple of months and the entire grid being in dire need of an upgrade.  While it is widely accepted at this point that the UK, and indeed the world, cannot reach net-zero by 2035 without nuclear power, it is clear more needs to be done. The government’s net-zero strategy has established bold targets and positioned Britain as a world leader in the path to a more sustainable planet. However, at a time when the UK is decommissioning its nuclear fleet, failing to replace old reactors at scale, and more importantly, facing an energy shortage, there’s a significant gap between rhetoric and reality.  What the government doesn’t seem to understand is that it takes ten years, at minimum, to build a nuclear power plant. If there is any hope of reaching those goals, action is needed now, and even then, we would likely remain behind schedule. It’s time for less rhetoric, more investment, and faster decision making.  Despite this reality gap, the nuclear industry welcomed Hands’ speech as an indication that government sentiment towards nuclear power is improving. As always, however, the proof will be in the pudding, and all eyes (at least in the nuclear industry) will be on whether or not the government puts its money where its mouth is. 

Financial sector shifts away from the EU and towards the US

What happened? British financial services exports to the US outstripped those to the European Union last year for the first time, in a sign that the City is shifting its focus away from Europe since the Brexit vote. What does this mean? In 2020, 34% of exports by banks and financial institutions went to America, compared to just 30% to the EU.  The emerging trend is likely to be seized on by Brexit supporters as proof of their claims that the City could prosper outside the EU bloc. And unlike many of their other claims, there is strong data that proves London remains much busier than any financial centre in Europe, with the British banking industry managing assets of $14.3 trillion at the end of June 2021, ahead of France and Germany. However, there are some caveats. The rise in trade with the US has been driven in part by post-Brexit barriers, which are reducing UK exports to the EU, but also by the US economy bouncing back faster than the Eurozone from the damages inflicted by the pandemic, thus providing greater trade opportunities.  Britain is already the second-largest exporter of services in the world, but service exports will need to remain strong if the government is to hit its ambitious target to reach £1 trillion of overall exports per annum by 2030. Whether this is a permanent shift, or a temporary blip due to Brexit teething problems and Covid-19, remains to be seen.

Countries line up to boycott the Winter Olympics

What happened?

Australia has joined the US-led boycott of the Beijing Winter Olympics. The Prime Minister has said that the country was concerned about human rights abuses against the Uyghur ethnic minority and will therefore not send diplomats to the games; they will however allow their athletes to compete. What does it mean?

It’s not surprising that Scott Morrison’s government would join the boycott, given the ongoing simmering trade war between the two countries.  But it’s hardly rattled the Chinese, who pointed out that: “No one cares if they come or do not come. The political hyping by Australian politicians for political self-interest will have no bearing on Beijing’s hosting the games successfully.”  And to be fair to China, they’re not wrong. Diplomatic boycotts will do very little to disrupt the Winter Olympics – instead they just highlight a lack of substance behind the Western world’s stance on important human rights issues.  If the US, Australia, and other countries expected to join the boycott – including the UK and Japan – want to take an impactful stance against a powerful authoritarian power, they don’t need to look too far back in the history books for a more effective approach. In 1980, the US implemented a total boycott – including athletes – of the Moscow Olympics in protest of the Soviet Union’s invasion of Afghanistan. Whilst this didn’t directly influence the dramatic fall of the Soviet Union just a decade later (the Mujahideen the Soviets encountered in Afghanistan were much more influential in that respect), it did underline how America and its allies had a substantive strategy for dealing with the Soviet Union.  Fast forward three decades, and this seemingly insignificant sporting spat magnifies how unlike their predecessors, our world leaders have yet to establish a strategy to deal with a gigantic authoritarian superpower.

This week’s must reads

1. “Boris Johnson is eating reality” by Alex Massie for The Spectator

2. “There’s nothing ‘civic’ about Sturgeon’s brand of nationalism” by Tom Harris for The Telegraph

3. “Angela Merkel’s most important legacy: her civility” by Jeremy Cliffe for The New Statesman

4. “Cruel ministers have made citizenship a tool of dirty politics” by Zoe Williams for The Guardian

Chart of the week

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