To get the Party back onside Johnson needs to (finally) deliver

The dust is settling following the excitement of Monday’s confidence vote in the Prime Minister. Although the diagnosis from most commentators is terminal, and despite 148 blue knives in his back (and front), Boris is still standing. He clearly thinks he has a shot at long-term survival. How then, will the embattled PM turn things around?

A lack of competition, for one. Johnson continues to rely on the fact there is no-one with the obvious chops to be able to corral the same Red Wall votes that got him his 80 seat majority in 2019. With Rishi Sunak having imploded, former leadership rival Jeremy Hunt marred by the fact that he’s already been rejected by Conservative members, and no cabinet members willing to stick their head above the parapet for a leadership challenge, there is a dearth of alternatives.

The PM must not forget, however, that those he needs to get onside number far more than the Red Wall constituents who lent the Conservatives their vote over Jeremy Corbyn. As the upcoming Tiverton and Honiton By-Election will likely illustrate, Johnson is also in danger of losing ground in the Conservative heartlands. He needs to get back to what got him elected. Rather, he needs to deliver on the (non-Brexit) promises that got him elected.

Some progress on the bogged-down Northern Ireland protocol would mute some of the growing calls for a return to the single market, but the real signifier of Johnson’s fightback will be his approach to taxation and the NHS. The Tories’ 2019 manifesto pledged to lower taxes, not put them up to the highest level in nearly 70 years, and the NHS was supposed to improve care thanks to new funding, not be trapped behind long patient wait lists. While Covid and Ukraine can help justify the failures on these fronts, Johnson needs to get back to basics by starting to cut taxes and make headway on the NHS issue in order to re-energise the core conservative vote and dampen discontent among his rebel MPs. If the rebels don’t see a pathway to re-election they will never end their rebellion.

The new ‘Right to Buy’ scheme is a significant first step to try and change the tide, but having seen similar, often rushed policies fail to make much of a splash following moments of Partygate-induced jeopardy, there needs to be a greater movement by Johnson to show the electorate he isn’t just treading water. He needs to walk the walk, not just talk the talk.

It’s clear no ‘lessons have been learned’ about Partygate

Issue: ‘Partygate’ (again)

The long-awaited Sue Gray report into the Downing Street lockdown parties is now live for all to see.

Context

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been hammered for months over his rumoured (and confirmed) attendance at a series of lockdown rule-breaking gatherings/parties/coming togethers during the Covid-19 pandemic. His responses to press or MP enquiries have not been consistent or forthcoming. Johnson is also the first prime minister to have broken the law while in office, receiving a fixed penalty notice for his attendance at one gathering.

The lobby is now combing over the Gray report and matching it to Johnson’s past statements (and those of his defenders in the Cabinet and party) to find any inconsistencies. There are also new photos of the parties.

The ‘line to take’

“I commissioned this report to set the record straight and allow us all to move on. I accept full responsibility for my failings. I am humbled by the whole experience. We have learned our lesson.”

(N.B. – the line Johnson actually delivered varied, but all of the component bits were there)

Line review

Our initial response: Zero f**ks given.

As in, this dry, rote, perfunctory statement demonstrates Boris Johnson doesn’t care what ordinary punters think about his lockdown transgressions. This statement isn’t for the families who couldn’t visit their loved ones as they lay dying in hospital.

Our more considered response: While most of the statement is demonstrably untrue, it does the job. Barely.

For a start, Johnson didn’t commission Gray’s report ‘to set the record straight’, he commissioned it because he was cornered after weeks of bad news stories. And then there’s the fact he (allegedly) invited Gray to a meeting to ask whether it was necessary to even publish the report, given the police investigation.

‘Allowing us to move on’ really means ‘allowing me to move on’, which isn’t something in Johnson’s purview to grant. Only the people will decide when they can move on. And while many undoubtedly have, those who took the rules seriously and followed them, to the point of not visiting loved ones as they died alone in hospital, probably haven’t moved on.

On the question of accountability, the Prime Minister accepting ‘full responsibility’ for his ‘failings’ is contradicted by his continued presence in his role. To most people, accepting full responsibility means something more than issuing a collection of stiff sentences organised into a dull statement.

The prime minister also claims to have been ‘humbled by the whole experience’. This is also, mind you, the same prime minister who attended all of these parties after nearly dying of Covid. Humbled? Fat chance. He’s only ‘humbled’ because he got caught.

That said, job one in these situations is to not add any fuel to the fire or open up new avenues of enquiry. On this count, the statement does the job. The Westminster lobby will see nothing much new and judge the statement according to that narrative frame. What’s more, with the Met Police having decided not to levy further fines, and Sue Gray declining to investigate the so-called ‘flat party’ following Dominic Cummings and Lee Cain’s departures, this appears to be the last gasp of new info for Partygate.

What the Westminster bubble might miss, however, is that people who haven’t followed every twist and turn will instead be focusing on the big picture: that a Prime Minister who made the rules they had to live by during a difficult time didn’t abide by them and didn’t care that his team (who knew better) chose not to adhere to them, either. And people don’t like being mugged off.

Line rating:

Blinder

Strong

Does the job ✅

Problematic

Piss poor

Digital Digest – 29 April

1. 
   

In this week’s Digital Digest we take a look at a crypto expert’s North Korea woes and London’s tech boom.

We then take a look at big tech with Elon Musk’s Twitter takeover being all the rage and Daniel Ek looking to distance Spotify from Netflix. 

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Closer To Home

British cryptocurrency expert faces £1m fine relating to North Korea links

A British cryptocurrency expert, Christopher Emms, is facing a fine of £1 million and 20 years jail time in the US after he spoke at a conference in Pyongyang, North Korea. Emms allegedly ‘advised members of the North Korean government on cutting-edge cryptocurrency.’ 

This is not the first time the despotic state has faced controversy in the world of crypto however, with accusations it has stolen $2bn by hacking cryptocurrencies. In fact, earlier this month the US claimed North Korea was responsible for stealing almost £500mn in crypto from a video game.

Emms, who claims Foreign Office guidance indicated it was safe for him to attend the event, is alleged to have said during his speech that the way the US controls the global monetary system is unfair. Another cryptocurrency expert who spoke at the event has been sentenced to five years of jail time in the US earlier this month on the same charges. Following his arrest in Saudi Arabia, Emms maintains his innocence.

The number of new tech companies incorporated in London increased by 94% in 2021

An analysis of data held by Companies House has revealed that 18,549 tech companies were incorporated in London last year, representing an increase of 94%. This seems to fulfil the Brexit promise that leaving the European Union and its legislative minefields would encourage digital innovation. Whilst London accounted for the highest number of incorporations, growth was visible across the UK.

David Blacher, partner and head of media and technology at RSM UK, commented “to be seeing incorporations increasing by between 40 – 60% in regions throughout the UK is very encouraging.” Blacher acknowledged the impact of the pandemic upon digital innovation highlighting how businesses have embraced technology as consumer demands shifted, demonstrated by the technology sector thriving while others struggled. 

The UK tech sector became the third economy, alongside the US and China, to reach $1 trillion in value after a surge in growth throughout the pandemic. The British digital industry is estimated to be worth more than double Germany’s equivalent – Britain’s closest European rival.

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Big Tech

Elon Musk announces takeover of Twitter for $44 billion

It has been a whirlwind week for Twitter and Elon Musk. Musk announced he was the platform’s largest shareholder on 2 April, only to refuse an offer to join the board. Many speculated at the time whether this was because of a loss of interest, but Musk only stepped back to allow himself to take a much bigger forward, quickly announcing a full takeover for $54.20 a share.

Musk is currently planning to pay for $21 billion of the deal, having secured additional funding from Morgan Stanley. Earlier this week it appeared to be a done deal, however, there has been a new twist as Tesla’s shares have dropped 12.2 per cent since the announcement. Musk’s bid is secured against his Tesla stock, but if Tesla’s stock continues to fall he could run into problems.

Even if Musk does end up completing the deal to buy Twitter, he could still face issues as the site has long had a rocky relationship with autocratic states like China. Tesla is partly manufactured and widely sold in the country, so Musk’s interest in a hostile company could be a point of contention – and potential leverage for the Chinese government to influence the future of the social media site.

Spotify chief distances music streaming group from Netflix 

Daniel Ek has told Spotify investors that Netflix and his company are “vastly different businesses” as he sought to avert further stock volatility. Netflix’s recent stock crash, driven by the news of their declining subscriber numbers, has had a knock on effect on Spotify reducing its value by nearly 20%. 

Ek’s move greatly contrasts with his previous attempts to convince investors that Spotify could replicate Netflix’s trajectory, with the streaming service’s great success on the stock market in recent years. Ek even hired Netflix’s former CFO Barry McCarthy to oversee Spotify’s IPO.

This is the latest hit to Spotify’s stock, having dropped by over 50% this year due to broader issues such as the Ukraine conflict and general worries over the business model of streaming services. Despite this, Spotify has seen its subscriber numbers grow by two million in the first three months of this year. This came despite shutting down its service in Russia and controversies involving Joe Rogan and wider misinformation.

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Also In The News

1. BT Group set to ditch its namesake BT brand as it’s ‘flagship’ for UK households in favour of promoting EE products instead. See here.

2. Google has begun removing search results containing people’s personal information, including phone numbers, and home and email addresses upon request. See here.

3. The Head of the UK’s new digital watchdog has claimed that the Online Safety Bill risks stifling start-ups. See here.

4. Alphabet has seen its revenue fall below analysts expectations due to a combination of inflation, the Ukraine conflict, supply issues and competition between YouTube and TikTok. See here.

5. There could be a shift in the global supply of electric car batteries to the West as China’s Covid lockdowns damage the country’s dominance in the market. See here.

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Worth A Read

1. Daily Telegraph: How attacking the New York Post paved the way for Elon Musk – and the Twitter lawyer behind the ban

2. Financial Times: Why the UK joined the race to woo the crypto industry 

3. Guardian: ‘Bossware is coming for almost every worker’: the software you might not realise is watching you

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