What last week’s election results mean for the battle for No. 10
Last week’s local election results provided the last major test of voter opinion before this year’s expected General Election. With the results now in, what did we learn from the various contests, which included more than 100 councils, 11 mayoralties, and nearly 40 police and crime commissioners, along with the fourth by-election held this year?
In the run up to Labour Party Conference, Trafalgar Strategy will be diving into Labour’s policy process and the pledges it is making to win over voters ahead of the next election
In the second instalment of our series, we share our guide to Labour’s policy making process.
Labour’s policy process is much more complicated than those followed by the other Westminster political parties.
It is inherently consultative, providing several opportunities for members to engage with the process, including through voting. This means a huge number of stakeholders have the ability to significantly impact policy.
However, despite this complicated consultative process, only a small number of key individuals will make the final judgement on which policies are included in Labour’s next manifesto. Ultimately, it all comes down to what Keir Starmer wants to include.
A simplified overview of the process:
Policy is discussed and proposed through Labour’s National Policy Forum, consultations, direct submissions from Party Members and third parties, and by the Parliamentary Labour Party. These policies are often formalised in Policy Reports created by the National Policy Forum and voted on at Labour Party Conference.
A draft of the manifesto is written by a senior political aide of the Leader of the Labour Party.
The Labour Party’s governing body, the National Executive Committee, agrees a final version of the manifesto at a “Clause V meeting”.
What happens in the run up to conference:
Before: In the lead-up to elections, each Constituency Labour Party, Trade Union and Socialist Society may each make one suggested motion to discuss at the Party Conference. The Conference Arrangement Committee also accepts emergency motions. At the same time, the National Policy Forum will prepare policy Reports on the various issues that they have consulted on throughout the year.
During: Around 1000 delegates can vote in policy motions at Labour Party Conference. The local constituency parties, trade unions and other socialist societies make up circa 50% of the vote on the conference floor. Proposals must be adopted by a majority of two-thirds or more. However, National Policy Forum Reports can only be approved or sent back for further development.
After: A final meeting attended by National Executive Committee, shadow cabinet ministers, senior trade union representatives and National Policy Forum members codifies policies discussed at Conference. In a normal election cycle, this means that several of these meetings will occur before the final manifesto is agreed at a Clause V meeting.
How Labour’s final manifesto will be agreed:
Policy voted on at Conference does not necessarily make it into Labour Party manifestos. Instead, the meeting that signs off the manifesto is called the ‘Clause V’ meeting.
The Clause V meeting is chaired by the Leader of the Labour Party and attended by all National Executive Committee members, relevant shadow cabinet ministers and trade union representatives.
The manifesto is often formally agreed by a vote at the end of the meeting on the whole document, rather than having votes on individual policies. The joint meeting shall also define the attitude of the Party to the principal issues raised by the election which are not covered by the manifesto.
In the run up to Labour Party Conference, Trafalgar Strategy will be diving into Labour’s policy process and the pledges it is making to win over voters ahead of the next election
In the first instalment of our series, we set the context and look at Labour’s route to power.
On the 8th October, Labour Party Conference will begin.
If our clients and contacts are representative of the UK’s business, politics and media community then it’s clear that it will gain significant interest due to the general consensus that Labour is going to win the next election.
It’s true that the Labour Party has enjoyed a consistent poll lead over the Conservatives since January 2022, with a recent regression poll from electoral calculus showing a Labour landslide of 460 seats - including taking the scalp of the PM’s seat.
However, Labour’s lead in the polls is sliding and Starmer’s lead over Sunak is sliding too. We are also (potentially) a long way from an election. Much can change.
Despite the prevailing narrative that Labour will win, many of the fundamentals which decide elections are also stacked against Labour.
Labour need to gain over 120 seats to turn around from 2019, their worst election result in 80 years.
A boundary review will gift the Conservatives a couple of extra seats.
Looking to historical data, Labour only tends to win when the country feels robust (it isn’t, the public finances are a mess).
Economic incompetency isn’t a surefire indicator that an incumbent will lose either. Look at Thatcher’s successive election victories amidst sky-high unemployment. Instead, voters back incumbents who support their economic interests (rather than the counties).
Dive below the headline polling numbers and it gets worse for Labour too. A recent focaldata poll found that undecided voters, about an eighth of the electorate, are likely to lean Conservative. On current polling numbers, if they turn out that would transform a Labour victory into a hung parliament.
You have to feel bad for the Leader of the Labour Party. He’s about to face huge scrutiny as the electorate weigh up whether he can provide a vision for the country. And although Starmer would probably have beaten Truss and Johnson - neither of whom the polls show the public liked - with Sunak he faces a tougher adversary.
The question for Starmer as he plans his party’s election campaign is whether he goes bold or not. He may secure victory if he keeps his head down, but he could also fail if he fails to set out a bold vision for the future.
To date, the country has been squarely focussed on the Conservatives and their failings. But now they will look to Labour. Scrutiny is coming, so we thought we’d kick it off.
Over the next two weeks we will cover:
How the Labour policy process works
What Labour’s Five Missions are
And dive into their existing policy programmes, from Labour’s industrial strategy to making the UK a clean energy superpower
If you want to discuss how to engage in the Labour policy process, or what a Labour government could mean for you, get in touch at info@trafalgar-strategy.co.uk
